Intrade trading (2) - what are the risks?

Now that we have a perfect way to make money, let’s look at the risks associated with it.

Here is a list of risks, and we’ll discuss how they affect the trading below:

• There is no change in behavior: the undersold contract stays undersold, and the oversold contract stays oversold until it matures
• Of the two components of the multiplied expected value we picked the wrong one
• Intrade finds out about this method
• Method trading becomes a large part of overall trading, skewing the values
• Intrade runs out of business

There is no change in behavior: the undersold contract stays undersold, and the oversold contract stays oversold until it matures

Intrade trading (1) - is there a system to be gamed?

Well, those of you who know me well have already heard my humble endorsement for this year’s race: I am all for Hillary, despite not being allowed to vote as a non-citizen-permanent-resident.

Despite the fact I can’t vote, I still think I am entitled to an opinion; after all, I pay plenty taxes and the President of the United States of America is the Prime Mover of all tax expenses.

What Caused the Mortgage Crisis?

It’s amazing to sit here, see the economy tumble down at the pace it’s going, and see the connection to the mortgage crisis. My friends and my family back in Europe ask about it, want to know how it happened, why it happened, and how to get out of it. I tell them that as soon as I am President… No, ok, I don’t tell them that.

At the same time, I listen to their explanations, read those of the pundits here, and particularly check the solutions proposed by people either around me or in Washington. And all of that leaves me baffled, mostly because the situation seems so much simpler than described to me. So, here it goes, Marco’s Theory of the Mortgage Crisis:

Comments by jellomizer@slashdot

Great but now can we learn from our past mistakes of the 1990’s?
Mistake 1: Thinking IT is on top of the food chain. No we are not IT is on the bottom of the food chain we need to service everyone. You may get paid more then the other guy and you may be more skilled but who ever you are doing work for is your boss.

Mistake 2: Not being professional. You should not stand out as the IT Guy because everyone else is wearing business casual and you are in tee-shirt and jeans. It is unfair and wrong but it is the way it is you need to dress to fit in. Otherwise you make people uncomfortable if they are uncomfortable your job can be at risk.

And the winner is: Orhan Pamuk

One of those serendipities in life: I had started reading “My Name Is Red,” by Orhan Pamuk. I would read it sparingly, because the writing was incredible and it was a pleasure to just revel on each page; maybe the mystery thriller aspect was not too forthcoming (I find the book still a little on the slow side, of course). In any case, I was about to write wonderful things about the interaction between the original writer (Pamuk) and his congenial translator, a native of Turkey that is to write his first novel.

New Spam: Bush's staunchest

You know that a politician has become a hallmark when spammers start using their name in subject lines. This is because spammers have to guess some subject that is so common that it won’t trip up the spam filters. So the moment I started seeing more and more Bush spam, I knew that George W. Bush had made into the rare category of iconic that is the man that everyone talks about…

Horror Story of a WoW Traveler

The following story is from the World of Warcraft forum. It is corroborated by a bunch of links, and it seems it is genuine. It’s both funny and instructional – as it shows just how crazy the fear of terrorism has become.

I played WoW, I became a terrorist (story!)

This … is going to be a long one. And believe it or not, it’s a 100% true story. Its relation to World of Warcraft will not be immediately apparent. Anyway, the gist of what happened is here: http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/story.html? id=6a11bd67-f717-4aa3-80a9-840c07949730&k=28503

Cancel online?

I have been in a Netflix hole. That’s when you put movies on your list that you don’t really want to watch, and then they sit at home. You feel too guilty to send them back, and they just sit there. When it’s one, no problem, you watch the other two. Then it becomes two, and you exchange only the third movie. Finally, the third dud arrives, and you are in a Netflix hole.

The difference between cats and dogs

Stolen from one of them funny sites…

IM Virus and Yahoo! ID harvesting

I got to work in the morning and found an IM from a colleague with a link in it. It went to a geocities page that requested my Yahoo! account information, and in the morning daze, I entered my information. As it didn’t proceed anywhere, I realized someone was spoofing my information. A panicked run to my Yahoo! account information page, change password several times (to make sure it still worked), sigh a worried sigh of relief.